Automotive : The Rise of the Electric Titans

Administrateur
5 days ago
4 min read

A comparative analysis of sales volumes (units) and revenue (value) for major global automakers between 2019 and 2024 reveals a historic disruption in the sector's economic model. While overall sales volume is stagnating or even regressing compared to pre-pandemic levels, revenues have exploded. This apparent paradox masks a profound transformation: the shift from a mass-market industry to a value-driven one, the meteoric rise of Chinese and American players specializing in EVs, and the defensive strategy of legacy European and Japanese manufacturers.

1. Introduction: The Volume-Value Paradox

The 2019-2024 period will undoubtedly go down in economic history as the "Great Divergence" for the automotive industry. The data shows a glaring discrepancy between the curve of units sold and that of revenue generated.

Looking at total global units, the market has contracted. The 2024 level remains below that of 2019. The industry is selling fewer cars today than before the crisis. However, total revenue has skyrocketed. This disconnect is the central thread of this analysis: manufacturers have compensated for the loss of volume with a drastic increase in the average selling price per vehicle.

2. Analysis of Major Trends

A. The Rise of the "Tech" Giants (Tesla & BYD)

This is the most spectacular trend.

Tesla: The American company is an anomaly. It is the only Western manufacturer combining massive volume growth (+37% growth trend) with an explosion in revenue. Tesla has moved from a niche player to a mass-market manufacturer without sacrificing value.
BYD: The Chinese giant is the big winner of the period. Its growth is exponential (volume multiplied by nearly 10 in 5 years). BYD has moved from a local player to a global behemoth, capturing market share not only in China but increasingly abroad.
Consequence: These two actors are driving the market. They are the only ones capable of waging a price war today because their margins allow it.

B. The European Defensive: "Pricing Power" over Volume

European groups (Stellantis, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes) show a distinct pattern:

Volumes are down or stagnant: Almost all show a decline in units compared to 2019.
Revenues are up: Despite selling fewer cars, turnover has increased significantly.
Analysis: This reflects a deliberate strategy of "Value over Volume." Faced with component shortages (2021-2022), manufacturers prioritized their most expensive and profitable models (SUVs, Premium). They abandoned the entry-level segment, judging it insufficiently profitable.

C. The Erosion of Japanese Dominance

Historical Japanese leaders (Toyota, Nissan, Honda) are showing signs of vulnerability.

While Toyota maintains its leadership in volume, growth is sluggish.
Nissan and Honda are seeing significant declines in both volume and relative value compared to the market average.
Cause: A delay in the pure electric transition and increased competition in their Asian strongholds (especially China) from local manufacturers.

3. The Causes of Transformation

Inflation and Raw Materials: The rise in energy and material costs forced an increase in vehicle prices, mechanically inflating revenue.
The Electric Mix: Electric vehicles (EVs) are sold at significantly higher prices than internal combustion equivalents. As the share of EVs increases in the mix (especially for BYD and Tesla), revenue grows faster than volume.
Strategic Shortages: The semiconductor crisis taught legacy manufacturers that they could generate record profits by restricting supply. Scarcity created value.
Technological Rupture: The car is becoming a software product. The value is shifting from the engine to the battery and software, areas where new entrants (Tesla, Chinese tech) have a lead, justifying higher pricing or rapid market share gains.

4. Consequences and Outlook

The Risk of a Social Gap

By prioritizing value, legacy manufacturers have abandoned the middle classes. The "affordable car" has virtually disappeared from Western catalogs. This creates a vacuum that Chinese manufacturers (MG, BYD) are eager to fill.

The Threat to European Industry

The strategy of "selling fewer but more expensive cars" is dangerous in the long term. It reduces the industrial footprint. If volumes drop too low, factories become difficult to fill, leading to restructuring and job cuts. The figures suggest a slow deindustrialization of the automotive sector in traditional Europe.

The Coming Consolidation

Small players or those lagging technologically (certain mid-sized Japanese or European manufacturers) risk being marginalized.
New Chinese entrants (Li Auto, XPeng), although growing strongly, still show modest volumes compared to the giants. Internal consolidation within the Chinese market is likely, leaving only a few global champions (with BYD in the lead).

5. Conclusion: The End of the Old World

The analysis of financial and commercial data from 2019 to 2024 confirms that the automotive industry has turned the page on the 20th century. The equation "More Volume = More Success" is temporarily broken for legacy players, replaced by a race for profitability to finance an existential technological transition.

However, this retreat-to-value strategy is under threat. The new giants (Tesla, BYD) are reintroducing a volume logic thanks to their technological and industrial mastery. They are capable of doing both: volume and revenue growth.

Legacy manufacturers are thus caught in a vice. They successfully navigated the supply crisis by raising prices, but they now face a demand crisis and competition that is slashing prices. The period 2025-2030 will no longer be one of "Bifurcation," but of "Natural Selection." Only those capable of reconciling volume (to amortize fixed costs) and innovation (to justify price) will survive. The figures clearly show that the industry's center of gravity has shifted to Asia and "Tech" players, leaving Europe and traditional America in a complex defensive posture.